HEADLINE: Swine flu could grow far deadlier, says WHO adviser
SUMMARY: Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading virologist and WHO adviser, fears that swine flu -- based on its similarities with the 1918 Spanish Flu -- may mutate into a far deadlier strain. Spanish Flu also started out mildly and affected healthy adults and children. The World Health Organization recently raised the level of influenza pandemic alert from Phase 5 to Phase 6.
ANALYSIS: If I had to put a worrisome percentage on the current swine flu I would say 10 percent. Since we have only one data point (1918) in some 100 or more years, I would say the chances are low for it to mutate into a killer of similar severity. However, since the stakes are high if it does mutate, then there has to be some concern and the requisite planning.
The question of which vaccine to produce (since the world production capacity allows for only one vaccine for the fall) is to gamble on the seasonal vaccine that kills about 30,000 per year vs. one that may be similar or be a real killer. My prediction is that because of politics (not science) the swine vaccine will be made at the expense of the routine seasonal vaccine.
-- Commentary by Dr. Steve Cunnion