Divisions

PROFESSOR YONAH ALEXANDER AND PROFESSOR DON WALLACE, JR., EDITORS

Click for full reportThe national, regional, and global spectrum of biological challenges is limitless. Throughout recorded history, these infinite safety concerns stem essentially from two inevitable sources of enduring actual and potential dangers to individuals, communities, societies, and civilizations.

The first critical threat is caused by Mother Nature’s disasters, such as earthquakes, cyclones, and infectious diseases. The second concern are man-made menaces, including violent radicalism, terrorism, and war. The key question then is whether the United States and the International Community are prepared to identify, prevent, and counter current and future biological threats.

In this connection our current academic and professional effort is publishing a Report on “Global COVID-19 and Sports: Threats and Responses” that consists of contributions by invited interdisciplinary panelists at our recent Ambassadors’ Forum on “Global Covid-19 and Sports: Threats and Responses” that was held on July 30, 2020, via Zoom conferencing and hosted by the International Law Institute (ILI) and the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies (IUCTS). Speakers at this Ambassadors’ Forum included Distinguished University Professor Rita Colwell (University of Maryland College Park and Johns Hopkins University.  Bloomberg School of Public Health); Dr. Richard B. Reff, MD (Orthopedic Surgeon and Sports Medicine Specialist); Carl Francis (Director of Communication at the National Football League Players Association); Chalana Damron, Tom Gies, Kristof Roox (attorneys at Crowell & Moring); Ambassador (Ret.) Charles Ray (a former U.S. diplomat and military officer); and Ambassador Pjer Simunovic at the Embassy of Croatia (holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union). Subsequently, Laurence Winston, an attorney also at Crowell & Moring contributed to the current Report as well.

It should also be noted that in view of the significant role of law in planning for the security, health, business, and sports world in the shadow of the continuing coronavirus pandemic, we decided, with the approval of Crowell & Moring, to also publish a Monograph on “Global Covid-19 and Sports: Exposure Claims and Liability Mitigation Considerations”. The authors of this publication were the attorneys from Crowell Moring LLP, namely, Chalana Damron, Thomas P. Gies, Kristof Roox, and Laurence Winston.  The abbreviated version of the Monograph is incorporated in the current, slightly edited and updated, Report.

This Preface provides a brief academic context from the perspectives of the Editors of this publication as well as relevant Acknowledgements.

 

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Bio6 29 19wbBiological security concerns, ranging from Mother Nature to man-made threats by state and non-state actors, transcend geographic regions. In 2018 and early 2019 alone, the Ebola virus has broken out in the Congo, cholera has afflicted war-torn Yemen, North Korea has augmented its biological warfare capabilities, and the Islamic State has demonstrated a willingness to pursue the use of biological weapons. These looming biological threats pose continual and unprecedented security challenges to those in the U.S. and abroad.

Is the international community prepared to identify, prevent, counter, and respond to future biological challenges? What are the past lessons, emerging risks, and needed strategies nationally, regionally, and globally?

The following report on “Biological Terrorism: International Dimensions” is based off the remarks given by experts from the security and health communities during a special seminar held on March 28, 2019 at the International Law Institute in Washington, D.C. The distin-guished panel included: Dr. Larry Kerr (Director, Pandemics and Emerging Threats, Office of Global Affairs, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services); Professor Rita Colwell (Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland, College Park and Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, and Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies); Dr. Daniel M. Gerstein (Senior Policy Researcher, Rand Corporation, and Former Acting Undersecretary and Deputy Undersecretary in the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security); Dr. Gerald L. Epstein (Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University); and Dr. Meghan Delaney (Chief of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine & Medical Director for Transfusion Medicine, Children’s National Medical Center, and Associate Professor of Pathology & Pediatrics, George Washington University). Professor Yonah Alexander (Director, Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, and Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies) moderated the discussion and General Al Gray (Twenty-Ninth Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, and Senior Fellow and Chairman of the Board of Regents, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies) provided closing remarks.

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icts20thsmAn enduring fixture of international affairs is the fact that, throughout the history of the world, nothing is static . Empires, countries, communities, and nearly entire civilizations have risen and declined while others became engaged in an endless struggle for power within and among social and political identifiable structures.

It is not surprising, then, that two historical lessons spring to mind when considering these socio- political fluctuations. The first recalls the old Chinese proverb which reads, “One who studies the past, knows the future” and the second observation, attributed to Hegel, asserts that “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.”

Indeed, these truisms have echoed continuously throughout the ages of different cultures and peoples located in every geopolitical region. The experience of the Balkans from antiquity to modernity demonstrates both evolutionary and revolutionary developments of triumph and calamity with broader significant strategic implications.

From the dawn of history, humanity has continuously faced two critical security challenges. The first is “natural”, or “Mother Nature’s”, disasters. It includes a wide range of disruptions and destruction to human lives and property. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, monsoons, droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires, and varieties of pandemics arising from biological pathogens, cause some of the most frequent catastrophic costs to individuals, communities, and civilizations.

PunctuatedEquilibriumReport 1An assessment of contemporary national, regional, and global security concerns may cause one to recall two ancient warnings . The first is attributed to Job: “for all the things which I greatly fear is come upon me, and that which I was afraid of is come unto me .” The second describes the four horsemen of the apocalypse representing agents of conquest, famine, war, and death, and perhaps even ushering in the beginning of the end of the world .

Indeed, since the dawn of recorded history, predicting, preventing, mitigating and bringing these and related individual and collective challenges under manageable levels have been a permanent fixture of humanity’s saga . The current report on “Punctuated Equilibria Paradigm and Security in the Modern World” is one of the most recent efforts to provide broader academic analysis on the complex threats and responses involved .

The distinguished contributors to this report initially presented papers on this topic at a special seminar held on February 27, 2018 in Arlington, VA under the co-sponsorship of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Washington, D .C ., Charles University in Prague, and the Chief of Staff of the Czech Armed Forces . More details on this event will be discussed subsequently in this Introduction . At this stage, a brief academic context is in order .

More specifically, the theories of “Punctuated Equilibria” and “Multiplier Effect” have been gain- ing importance and significance, including to militaries around the world . Developed versions adapted to complex societies may be considered one of the most promising and strategic avenues of research in the social sciences . These two theoretical tools offer a way to anticipate major events and conflicts that may come into being and that better knowledge of the universal processes and laws governing any complex society is of critical importance for the 21st century .

 

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balkanssmAn enduring fixture of international affairs is the fact that, throughout the history of the world, nothing is static . Empires, countries, communities, and nearly entire civilizations have risen and declined while others became engaged in an endless struggle for power within and among social and political identifiable structures .

It is not surprising, then, that two historical lessons spring to mind when considering these socio- political fluctuations . The first recalls the old Chinese proverb which reads, “One who studies the past, knows the future” and the second observation, attributed to Hegel, asserts that “We learn from history that we do not learn from history .”

Indeed, these truisms have echoed continuously throughout the ages of different cultures and peoples located in every geopolitical region . The experience of the Balkans from antiquity to mo- dernity demonstrates both evolutionary and revolutionary developments of triumph and calamity with broader significant strategic implications .

See the Full Report Here