Published in Cogent Social Sciences

The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq brought increased international attention to regional dynamics in the Middle East. A key challenge for the U.S. was Iran’s support for regional proxy militias. Despite regime denials, from 2003 to 2008, Iran provided financial, intelligence, and military support to violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) like the Mahdi Army that were active during Iraq’s transition away from authoritarianism under Saddam Hussein. Did this external support cause variation in violence by the Mahdi Army, whether military, civilian, precision-targeted, or indiscriminate? This article argues that Iranian support to the Mahdi Army correlated with a change in type, complexity, and lethality of the militia’s attacks against the U.S. and host nation (i.e. shifting from light weapon attacks on host state/U.S. military targets to Iranian-manufactured explosives on civilians). Accordingly, the article uses process tracing to reconstruct overlapping timelines of (1) Iran’s assistance to the Mahdi Army; (2) the Mahdi Army’s attacks against the U.S. military; and (3) Iraqi and U.S. responses. Analysis reveals a strong correlation between Iranian military support for the Mahdi Army, changes in the type, lethality, and complexity of violent events, and impact or response. This work offers more fine-grained analysis into the types and impacts of external support and lays the groundwork to substantiate causal relationships between VNSA and state sponsors.

Read the full article at Cogent Social Sciences.

Margaret McWeeney, Ph.D., is a Research Analyst at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and International Center for Terrorism Studies. Her research focuses on hybrid warfare and nonstate actor security threats.

Kevin Harrington is a Research Analyst at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.